FantasyLion.com: All Day

Don't Worry 49ers, I Know How to Fix Your Future

Thu, 28 Oct 2010 20:38:00 -0700

by Johnny Lion† of Pyromaniac.com

One of my friends asked me what was wrong with the Niners. Below is my assessment of this trainwreck and how to fix it.

The Niners are dogshit. Singletary has lost the team. This has been a series of bad decisions that is resulting in their early season implosion. This all started with the signing of David Carr. By signing Carr, the Niners decided that they weren’t going to pursue McNabb and go with Smith.

You and I both know that he sucks. If a guy doesn’t get it done in 5 years, he’ll never be more than a back up. When your QB is ineffective and you don’t want to put the blame on him and ruin his fragile confidence, then you start pointing the fingers elsewhere. Jimmy Raye was the first scapegoat. The Niners should have never let Martz go. With Martz running the offense and Singletary and Manusky running the D, this team would have been dominant. But that didn’t happen either because Coach Mike felt threatened or Martz wanted the head coaching job and left.

So now we’re left with the Alex Smith experiment still shitting on our offense. The new OC is helpful, but he’s under-qualified and Smith is still the root of the problem.

The worst part of this is Coach Mike is going to get run out of town and Frank Gore’s career is going to go to waste having played on bad teams.

When I watch them play, the only 2 guys that can be counted on are Gore and Willis.

My best advice for them would be to bench Smith, put Carr in there so he can suck, then the Niners will know what we as fans have known, that it’s time for a new QB.

The good news is McNabb and Vick will be free agents this year. Every other potential free agent QB sucks so it’s time to make a play for one of them if they don’t re-sign with their teams or draft a QB.

The best case scenario would be if Coach Mike can take this team that’s playing like a 5-11 team and get them to 8-8 then draft a new QB. Hopefully they don’t can him, because that would be a mistake unless they can him for a guy like Bill Cowher.

We’ll see. They’ve made some good moves, but not enough to get us back to where we belong.

Follow Johnny on Twitter or Email This Pharmacist

Dealing With Injuries

Thu, 28 Oct 2010 20:26:01 -0700

by Johnny Lion† of Pyromaniac.com

In 15 years of fantasy football, I’ve never seen a year so brutal when it comes to injuries. Maybe in 1999 when top 2 picks Terrell Davis and Jamal Anderson both went down, but this year is ridiculous. If you’re a Matt Stafford, Tony Romo, Vince Young, Michael Vick, Darren McFadden, Michael Turner, Knowshon Moreno, Ryan Mathews, Pierre Thomas, Malcom Floyd, Clinton Portis…(you get the point) owner, then you know what I mean.

Now you can do one of two things. One, you can pack it in and bitch about what bad luck you have and whine to your co-workers about how you should be winning your fantasy league. I’d advise against this, because if your co-workers don’t care about your kids, what the hell do you think they think about your fantasy team?

That leads me to your next option; grind. You should never stop working the waiver wire. You should look at your fantasy team like a puzzle. Keep searching for the right pieces until it’s complete. Then when it’s complete find some backup pieces. Even when you’re team is looking good, it could always look better. If you have a studly starting lineup, continue to make moves to build a strong bench. Having a strong bench helps you if you’ve suffered a loss to injury. A strong bench also allows you to package up some of your depth to trade for studs.

So unless you’re 0-6, you still stand a chance. Fight the temptation to bitch to anyone who’ll listen, dig in, and GRIND! We’re not even halfway done folks, the fun is just beginning!

Follow Johnny on Twitter or Email This Pharmacist

Opening Night Betting Preview

Mon, 06 Sep 2010 20:13:18 -0700

Welcome to the Vegas section of Pyromaniac.com where we take a look at each game from a betting perspective. I’m going to give a brief description of each game and which teams I think are worth taking a chance on. You can choose to go heavy on one of the teams or spread it out. It’s up to you. There’s an argument to be said for either way. The odds are from Matchbook.com. I’ll rank each team on a 1-5 scale with a 1 being a bet you should pass on and a 5 being a must play.

With a rematch of last year’s NFC Championship Game, we have the Vikings visiting the Saints once again this Thursday to kick off week 1.

In that game last January, the Saints were a 4 point favorite and did not cover in their 31-28 overtime victory. Keep in mind that was also a game where the Saints won the turnover battle 5-1.

What’s interesting is this game opened up with the same line of -4 and has since moved to -4.5 with some books having the line at -5.5. The line movement is probably due to all the public money that’s come in on the Saints.

Well it would make logical sense that the Saints would roll again in this one being the defending champs and the Vikings having all their issues, right?

Not in my opinion.

There’s a reason the public gets slayed most weeks and in such a high profile game, and with 65% of the money on the Saints, it looks like the public also known as “the squares” could be in for another disappointment.

When you bet, you have to have a contrarian attitude before leaving your hard-earned cash in the hands of overpaid athletes. Before you lay almost a TD on the defending champs, play Devil’s advocate with yourself and ask why this bet is appearing to be so obvious.

Once you do, you’ll discover that there’s some deeper angles that could favor the Vikings.

1. The revenge factor: one of the more underrated factors in football, but the Vikings will come into this one with a lot to prove especially considering they should have won the NFC Championship.

2. The turnover battle: Last time they got slaughtered in the turnover battle, 5-1. That won’t happen this time. If the Vikings turned the ball over 2 less times last time, they could have and should have blown the Saints out. I wouldn’t be surprised if the Vikings win easily in this win by keeping the turnover battle close and controlling the clock with a heavy dose of Adrian Peterson.

3. The points: I only take the underdogs if I think they can win outright. And I do in this one, so getting the 4.5 is a gift. If the Vikings can keep it close, then you’ll be a winner.

It’s going to take a lot of nerve to go against the grain by taking the Vikings in this one even though the obvious play is the Saints. Fight the urge to play the obvious and take the Vikes and the points and start your season off in the positive.

Vikings +4.5 Bet Strength: 4 out of 5

Slow Your Role: Opening Night Edition

Mon, 06 Sep 2010 19:28:19 -0700

Each week you’ll need to set your lineup, but you may not be sure what role each player will have for you. I mean we all know Ray Rice is a stud, but can he still be counted on for RB1 production vs the Jets tough run D this week? In the NFL, each team sets up their depth chart based on who’s healthy and who’s playing well. Likewise in fantasy, you should be doing the same thing. In an effort to help bring your team some identity, we’d like to introduce you to “Slow Your Role”, the depth chart of fantasy football.

NOTE- These rankings are comprehensive and in no particular order. The point expectations are based on 12 team, point per reception leagues, 4 points for passing TDs, 6 points for all other TDs. If you’re in something other than a 12 team PPR league check out the Forbes List on ffPharmacy.com and the weekly rankings on Pyromaniac.com.

Minnesota Vikings at New Orleans Saints

QB1- must starts, expect at least 20 points

Drew Brees, NO - This game could turn into a shootout quickly and with the Vikings usually strong up front to start every year, the advantage for the Saints will be in the passing game.
Brett Favre, Min - I’m not a fan of the old man, but I’ll be rooting for him in this one. I’d look for the Vikes to rely on AP early and often, but I like Favre to throw for a couple of TDs and at least 200 yards.

QB2- only play if your starter is out, expect at least 15 points

RB1- must starts, expect at least 15 points

Adrian Peterson, Min - I love AP in this one. The Vikings will need the heat off of Favre and the best way to do that is to feed their workhorse. I wouldn’t be surprised if AP finished as the #1 back this week.
Pierre Thomas, NO - PT might have a hard time running the ball, but he’s dynamite in the passing game. PT should also be a good bet to score.

RB2- your #2 RB, expect at least 12 points

Reggie Bush, NO - I’m never wild about giving Bush an endorsement, but if this game turns into the shootout I think it will, Bush should be active in the passing game. Recently, Reggie has gone Cris Carter… “all he does is score TDs”. Reggie will only get about 10 touches, but he won’t need a lot to get his.

RB3- I’d only start one of these guys if I had no other choice, expect around 10 points but don’t be disappointed if they come up small

Chris Ivory/DeShawn Wynn, NO - If you’re relying on either of these guys week 1, you’re already in trouble. Ivory should be the guy, but he’s banged up so it could be Wynn. With the Saints intent on rolling with a 3-headed monster at RB, expect one of these guys to get some work.

WR1- must starts, expect at least 15 points

Percy Harvin, Min - With Rice out, Harvin should be the main benefactor. Bottomline, Percy should be in for a lot of work and grind his way to a nice night.

WR2- your #2 WR, expect at least 12 points

Marques Colston, NO - It’s a crapshoot determining Saints WR production every week, but normally you have to assume that it’s going to be Colston. I’d love to rank him as a WR1, but he’s so damn inconsistent. I feel very comfortable with him as a high WR2 though in this one.

WR3- I’d only start one of these guys if I had no other choice, expect around 10 points. Some of these guys will have pretty good games, others will have you wishing they were never on your team to begin with.

Bernard Berrian, MIN - Berrian had a very nice game the last time he played the Saints, but without Rice we don’t know how the targets are going to be distributed. Until them, start him as a nice WR3.
Lance Moore, Devery Henderson, Robert Meachem, NO - Now we play production-go-round with the rest of the Saints WRs. I’m going to group them all together because it’s going to come down to which sees the most targets. One of these guys will have a start-worthy game, but unless you have Sean Payton on the text, your guess is as good as mine.
Greg Camarillo, Min - Camarillo is a really intriguing option this week. Camarillo could be in for some nice underneath work in this one making him a decent reach if you need him. But then again, at this point in the season, your team should be healthy and you shouldn’t be reaching. If you have to reach, then you should have bought our draft kit… Just sayin’.

WR4- If I’m really desperate, I’d go with one of these guys and hope for the best. They’re super reaches for sure. Expectation is around 8 points but 0 is also a very real possibility.

Greg Lewis, Min - If you’re thinking about starting Greg Lewis this week or ever for that matter. Quit fantasy football. Seriously, quit. Invest your time and energy into something more worthwhile like collecting dandelions.

TE1- must starts, expect at least 12 points

Vishante Shiancoe, Min - Stanky Shiancy doesn’t catch a lot of balls, but he is Brett’s favorite target in the red zone. Without the 6’4 Rice to target, Shiancoe should be the main benefactor inside the 10. I would expect more than 5 catches, but Shiancoe is always a good bet for about 3 catches, 50 yards, and a few looks in the red zone giving him about a 30% chance to score.

TE2- only start if your backup is out, hope for 10 points (in no part. order)

Jeremy Shockey, NO - I’d even say 10 points is a reach for. If you have Shockey, drop him and pick up a younger guy like Jermaine Gresham or Rob Gronkowski who’s sure to have more fantasy value than Shockey this year.

D1- Solid looking Ds, expect around 10 points (in no part. order)

D2- These Ds have matchup or talent issues, but could surprise, hope for at least 8 points (in no part. order)

New Orleans Saints - If you have a better option, I’d consider it. I expect both offenses to score at least 20 points which would mean neither D would get points for points allowed. The Saints D benefited from being very opportunistic last year, the type of turnover ratio that they achieved last year will be very hard to replicate this year.
Minnesota Vikings - Again, if you have a better option, I’d go with that. The Cardinals D vs the Rams and Sam Bradford making his first start is a good option. I have a feeling we see a defensive TD in this game and that could go to Min. Plus with Percy returning kickoffs, he’s always a threat to take one to the house. Additionally, their pass rush should be able to get after Brees. The Vikes are a decent start but not a great start.

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Want to write for my new site?

Sat, 10 Jul 2010 15:53:37 -0700

What’s going on everyone?

Some of you may or may not know this, but I’ve left the confines of my own blog FantasyLion.com and joined the awesome staff over at Pyromaniac.com, so you can catch all of my future articles and videos there.

I also wanted to let you know that I’m looking for writers/contributers for a new site that we’re launching called the Fantasy Football Pharmacy (www.ffpharmacy.com). If you are interested on contributing to the site or looking for an additional way to promote your website/blog, let me know. If you’ve always wanted to write about football, but never had an outlet, this is for you!

We are launching on Wednesday and are pumped about it!

Where do I go to sign up for one of your leagues?

Tue, 29 Jun 2010 00:06:20 -0700

If you’re interested in playing in a league with me, email me at john@fantasylion.com and I’ll send you all the info!

FRANK THE TANK! FRANK THE TANK! Frank Gore - 2010 Fantasy...

Sat, 19 Jun 2010 12:56:00 -0700

FRANK THE TANK! FRANK THE TANK!

Frank Gore - 2010 Fantasy Outlook Video courtesy of Pyromaniac.com!

Philip Rivers - 2010 Fantasy Outlook Video courtesy of...

Wed, 16 Jun 2010 23:30:20 -0700

Philip Rivers - 2010 Fantasy Outlook Video courtesy of Pyromaniac.com!

Points Per Reception: The Cadillac of Fantasy Football

Wed, 16 Jun 2010 00:34:52 -0700

Points Per Reception: The Cadillac of Fantasy Football

by John Gustafson

In 1996, when I was in the sixth grade, I was bit by the fantasy bug. It all started on a Sunday morning after a Saturday night sleepover. That morning after some pancakes my friend Clint and I headed into the living room to catch some NFL action on the tube. This was a pretty normal activity as Clint was a big Dolphins fan, and me, of course a Niners fan. About 30 minutes later, Clint’s dad came into the room going apeshit because Dan Marino had already thrown 2 TD passes and his team had 12 points. Wait a second? Why was Clint’s dad so excited? Unlike Clint, he wasn’t a Dolphins fan, he was a 49ers fan. And 12 points? We all know TDs are worth 14 points. What the hell was going on here? Well once Clint and his dad calmed down, they introduced me to the greatest hobby known to all man-kind; fantasy football.

Since that day, I have been hooked. The next 2 years I followed Clint and his dad’s team as closely as I could. That was fine, but one of the greatest days of my fantasy career came when I convinced my parents to let me sign up for an email account so I could own my own team. I know what most of you are thinking, “geez, how sheltered is this guy?” Now I was a little sheltered, I mean, hell, I wasn’t even allowed to watch the Simpsons, so getting an email account was a big deal. But let’s also not forget, this was 1998 and the great internet discovered by Al Gore had barely been gaining popularity.

Anyways, your first time playing fantasy football is like the first time you got your first 8-bit Nintendo… life changing. That year I ran the table on my free Yahoo! league behind Steve Young, Barry Sanders, and Terrance Mathis. One year, one championship, I was the shit, the next greatest thing, the Jimmy the Greek of fantasy football… or so I thought.

That was until the next year when I played in my first money league. Yes, that’s right, I was 15 and already spending $100 of my hard earned money from my summer job to play in the company fantasy football league. Now this league was about as archaic as they come. It didn’t reward points for TDs, just yardage. No problem, the fantasy football prodigy (I thought I was) was going to take this sucker down anyways especially since I had the #1 pick. Then reality hit. My first overall pick of Terrell Davis tore his knee a few games into the season. My WRs were crap and I was left in shambles as Drew Bledsoe and Jerome Bettis didn’t live up to expectations and while the owner who won the league was led by a guy I had never heard of (Kurt Warner) and an old RB who resurrected his career (Curtis Martin).

After the pitfall of 1999, I vowed to get obsessively better at fantasy football. Never again would I let a sleeper like Warner get past me. If something was going down, I was going to know about it weeks before anyone else. The next 2 years, I dominated that league. Everything I learned that offseason helped shape me into the experienced fantasy player I am today.

After the 2001 season, I had 3 titles in 4 years under my belt, I was ready for another challenge, time to “up the ante” as they say. I wasn’t looking for much. After dominating the yardage league, I was looking for a league with points for TDs or as I put it to my yardage league mates, “a real league”. In 2002, I discovered a little known site called Antsports.com. The site is still hosting leagues, but is pretty damn obsolete. I’ll never play in a league on there again after some bad experiences, but I will give it some credit.

The Antsports league not only awarded points for TDs, but also had PPR. PPR? WTF was that?! I had to investigate! I came to find out that PPR stood for points per reception meaning that every time an offensive player caught a pass, they would get an additional point. This blew my mind. It was like the scene in Indiana Jones and Raiders of the Lost Ark when Indy first encounters the gold head thingy. I was shocked… appalled at a rule so bold, but enthralled and had to have more.

I spent that whole summer reading about PPR and how leagues with PPR make WRs more valuable and give the worthless TEs value. Wait a second! A league where you didn’t have to build your team around RBs? Unheard of! TEs with value? No freaking way! I had to be in a league like this! Now I thought this was probably a fluke type thing, but I wanted to strike while the iron was hot! So I convinced my buddies Nick and Geoff to sign up for 2 Antsports leagues. I’d split the teams with each of them and co-own 2 teams in a big time PPR real league.

Nick and I gambled on Ricky Williams in the first round of our draft. Up until that point Ricky had been a disappointment for most of his career and would be playing his first year in Miami. We rode Ricky and his 2,200+ total yards and 37 catches all the way until the semi-finals. Our downfall was our WRs.

Geoff and I on the other hand rolled. That year we cruised with a WR corps of Terrell Owens (100 catches, #2 overall WR), Hines Ward (112 catches, #3 overall WR), Joe Horn (88 catches, #8 overall WR), and Koren Robinson (78 catches, #15 overall WR), yes he had fantasy value at one point. Not to mention this league only required one starting RB so we only started one. Our guy, Charlie Garner, led all backs that year with a cool 91 catches and finished 4th overall at RB in fantasy points. A team built on WRs and 1 RB? This league didn’t know what him them. What’s funny is each week Geoff and I thought we would lose when we compared our roster to the other team because that guy had better RBs. Boy were we wrong! We lost 2 games all year, one was early in the season and the other was in the fantasy championship in one of the worst fantasy nightmares ever… but that’s a story for a future Pyro article.

At some point in our friendship, Geoff, told me that No Limit Texas Hold Em was nicknamed the Cadillac of poker. I always liked that. After that near glorious season of 2002, I christened PPR the Cadillac of Fantasy Football. I now consider non-PPR leagues the devil, archaic, bush league; the list goes on and on baby.

If you’re not playing in a PPR league, you are missing out on one of the purest, most fun ways to play fantasy football. It may sound like more work and research, but it’s really not. All it’s really doing is giving more balance to the scoring and making leagues more fair and competitive in a day age where NFL backfields are riddled with committees.

If you’re playing in a non-PPR league and you don’t get one of the top 5 RBs, then you might as well kiss your fantasy season goodbye or have an extremely lucky rabbit’s foot because the odds are stacked up against you pal. And come on, where’s the skill in picking one of the top 5 RBs? My grandma who thinks Joe Montana still plays QB for the 49ers could do that if I gave her a list with a big circle around the top 5 and instructions to pick one of these guys at all costs.

Once worried about PPR balanced scoring being a fluke, it’s not. It’s the real deal. Every year there are about the same number of QBs, RBs, and WRs, that finish in the top 30 with a few TEs sprinkled in. There are even some PPR leagues that award 1.25 points for the TEs, now making the scoring that much more balanced.

So heap your pile of junk hoopty of a league and hop into a Cadillac. This is the 2010s. Our president is black so your fantasy league shouldn’t be whack. Not to get political, but this will be a change you want. You’ll thank me later. My name is John Gustafson and I approve this message.

2009 Non-PPR Top 20 Scorers (QBs Exempt)

1. Chris Johnson 2. Adrian Peterson 3. Maurice Jones-Drew 4. Ray Rice 5. Thomas Jones 6. Frank Gore 7. Ricky Wiliams 8. Andre Johnson 9. Ryan Grant 10. Randy Moss 11. Miles Austin 12. Steven Jackson 13. Joseph Addai 14. Jonathan Stewart 15. DeSean Jackson 16. Larry Fitzgerald 17. Jamaal Charles 18. Reggie Wayne 19. Rashard Mendenhall 20. Roddy White Totals: Top 10- 8 RBs, 2 WRs, 0 TEs. Top 20- 13 RBs, 7 WRs, 0 TEs
2009 PPR Top 20 Scorers (QBs Exempt)
1. Chris Johnson 2. Adrian Peterson 3. Ray Rice 4. Maurice Jones-Drew 5. Andre Johnson 6. Randy Moss 7. Reggie Wayne 8. Wes Welker 9. Larry Fitzgerald 10. Frank Gore 11. Miles Austin 12. Brandon Marshall 13. Dallas Clark 14. Steve Smith, NYG 15. Roddy White 16. Sidney Rice 17. DeSean Jackson 18. Vernon Davis 19. Ricky Williams 20. Steven Jackson Totals: Top 10- 5 RBs, 5 WRs, 0 TEs. Top 20- 7 RBs, 11 WRs, 2 TEs

Fantasy Football Hustle Podcast Episode 3

Wed, 16 Jun 2010 00:33:35 -0700

On Episode 3 of the Fantasy Football Hustle Podcast I cover the toughest position to draft from this year, where to take your QB, how to maximize the first 4 rounds of your draft, who I’m taking every single time in the 5th round, and tell you what to do when faced with the decision of Harvin, Nicks, or Maclin.

The Great Chicago Debate: No Not Cubs or White Sox, Forte or Taylor?

Sat, 29 May 2010 06:30:28 -0700

by John Gustafson and Dave Perrin

A few days ago I engaged in a discussion about Chester Taylor being over-hyped. This was alarming to me because I love Chester Taylor as a 4th RB and have been targeting him around the 8th round.

I have also been avoiding Forte. I loved him last year, but after 2009’s disappointing performance, I wasn’t going to go out of my way to pick him. With the help of special contributor Dave Perrin, I’d like to re-create that discussion. Dave’s arguments helped open my eyes to a possible fantasy gem that I may have been overlooking.

One of the keys to being a successful fantasy player is being flexible and open-minded. With that in mind, take a look at the back and forth between Dave and me regarding the Chicago Bears RB situation.

Dave: Okay, here’s something that’s been sticking in my craw since he moved to Chicago:

All this talk about Chester Taylor being “the guy” in over Matt Forte — based on what exactly? On how he’s pretty much never done it in almost an entire decade in the NFL? I’m sorry, but this reeks of the worst kind of band-wagoneering, for both players.

Lets take a sober look at the Chicago RBs:

Chester Taylor — he had one good year, and it really wasn’t that good. Trust me, I had him that year. Yes, he got 1,200 yards rushing and about another 300 receiving, but he had 6 lousy TDs and only 2 in the first 9 games. He had one TD in his first game and then only one more for the next 2 solid months. Two months! And that was 4 years ago. His best season in 9 years was 100 yards and 2 TDs better than the “horrible” season Forte had just last year (and if you consider that one of those TDs came in week 17, its only 1 TD better).

Matt Forte — yes, he had a disappointing season. Disappointing based on his being projected as a top-3 RB, but the guy was dinged up all year and Chicago’s line played like crap for him compared to ‘08. He still put up 1,400 total yards.

So why is everyone jumping all over themselves about a guy who been in the league since ‘02 and put up 1,000+ yards rushing exactly once, four years ago? Why is he going to be “the guy” and take the job from a guy who had a down year last year and a great year as a rookie? I don’t care what they’re paying Chester Taylor. Its a little more than what LT’s getting and he’s not going to be “the guy” either. Doesn’t it make sense that they got Taylor as insurance and to take a decent load off of Forte’s shoulders, because 380 touches his rookie year was too much?

Here’s what’s really burning my britches, though — where’s the real analysis???

All I’ve been hearing is “Oh! Chester Taylor is just soooo much more talented a running back than Matt Forte!” Really? Because that’s not what everyone was saying about Forte last year. Either people were wrong about Forte last year or they’re wrong about him this year. Or both.

Here’s the arc of how Matt Forte has been perceived over the last 2+ years:

2008 preseason — Matt Forte is a great guy, works hard, just not truly special. The kind of guy you root for but not an elite talent. Could have a chance to surpass Benson if Benson keeps screwing up.

2009 preseason — Matt Forte IS a special back! Sure-fire top-3 next year, possibly even the #1 pick in PPR format! “A lock” for 300+ carries, 70+ receptions, 1,500+ yards, 12+ TDs, yadda, yadda, yadda…

2010 preseason — Matt Forte is an absolute dog! He’s never even averaged 4.0 YPC! Chester Taylor is gonna take that job!

So what’s up?

Maybe this is what’s up — Matt Forte, everyone was right the first time. Great guy, lotta heart, well-rounded player, not an elite talent. Overachieved in ‘08, underachieved in ‘09. What should we expect in 2010? How about a bounceback year but not what we saw in ‘08?

And Taylor? Maybe everyone was right the first 9 times — he’s not a starting RB.

So everyone was wrong about Forte last year. So we’re all mad because we got burned taking him early in the first round. Lets not make it worse by being wrong about both of these guys this year.

If Chester Taylor is soooo much more talented than Matt Forte, why has he only gotten one chance in 9 years to be “the guy”. Four years ago.

Seriously, who do you trust to be “the guy” if you’re Lovie Smith? The guy who’s had one borderline RB1/RB2 season in 9 years? Or the guy who had a serviceable RB2 season and a top-5 season in just 2 years in the league?

Chile, please.

Okay, I’m officially off the soapbox. Your turn

John: Interesting argument, but Taylor played behind one of the best backs in the NFL. Also, if I’m Taylor, where else can I make loads of coin for basically playing a part time role while saving my body and increasing my bank account? Not may other professions, so if I were him, I would have happily played second fiddle to AP.

I’m not ready to peg him the man, but I do think we’ll see a timeshare here. I think most are in love with Taylor because he can be picked around the 8th round or later while Forte will cost a 4th or 5th round pick.

Backs do well in a Martz offense so we’re all trying to find the gem here. If you look at history, Martz only had 2 backs worthy of getting the ball once and that was in 2004 when he had Faulk on his way out and Jackson on his way in.

That year Faulk got 51% of the touches to Jackson’s 35%.

I think that’s a likely expectation in this situation. With that in mind, I’d still rather have Taylor late and hope he can increase his % and cut into Forte’s touches than spend a valuable early pick on Forte hoping he can get more.

Taylor = higher ceiling, lower risk.
Forte = lower ceiling, higher risk.

Taking Matt Forte is not a risk I’ll be taking this year.

Dave: And I’d be happy to get him as an RB2 in the 4th or 5th round, maybe with a nice set of WRs in between. Just don’t see Taylor as having much value except as a backup.

This is a good thing though — looks like we won’t have to fight over these guys if we play in the same league this year.

John: Very true lol. I’m glad you brought this up though because I’m seriously on the fence about Forte. I want to like him, but I’m just not totally convinced. I’m going to keeping searching for reasons to consider him.

Ha, I think I found my answer. As miserable as Forte’s season was last year he still finished 12th overall at RB in ppr. I think he may have found himself onto my list

Dave: Ok then — its on!

John: I added him to my list, but would still likely take a WR late round 4, early 5, so he’s all yours buddy!

Or is he…

Dave: All I’m saying is they’re not paying Forte to sit on the bench either. Look, I expect Taylor to play. I expect them to limit Forte’s carries — to less than 300. I’m not putting Forte up there with Gore and potential top-5 RBs, just saying he’s going to be better than last year. And better than Taylor.

John: Well said, thanks Dave! I may have missed a good one had you not brought your perspective to my attention.

In the end, it’s up to you decide which back you like more in Chicago, but as Dave pointed out, don’t fall in love with Taylor. He’s a nice mid-round value pick, but don’t go expecting him to steal the job from Forte anytime soon.

This could change over the summer, but right now it looks like Forte will be the higher scorer out of the backfield in Chicago.

This is a battle we’ll have our eyes on all fantasy summer long!

Follow FantasyLion.com on Twitter, www.twitter.com/FantasyLion or email John, john@fantasylion.com

who do u think will have a better fantasy football year Ryan Grant, Cedric Benson or Beanie Wells?

Sat, 29 May 2010 06:25:00 -0700

I’m not wild about any of them and won’t pick them this year because none of them catch the ball and I only play in points per reception leagues.

However, out of those 3, I’d rather have Beanie Wells. He seems to have the most upside.

The Cards upgraded their line and lost Warner so they’ll rely on their passing game more and Beanie has an easy schedule.

Beanie and Benson have an injury history which is two other reasons I’m not falling in love with either.

Benson should have a lot of running lanes as the Bengals look committed to being more effective in the passing game. However, I won’t be taking him because of the above mentioned reasons.

Ryan Grant was a top 10 back last year but that was only because there was a lot of transition at the RB position last year.

You saw guys getting hurt and new stars emerge, but Grant achieved his normal steady production and was a top 10er by default.

I don’t think that’s the case this year and I think a 2nd or 3rd round pick is too much to pay for him. He isn’t special and I like guys with a higher ceiling than Grant’s for an early pick like that.

Again, I’m partial because I only play in PPR leagues. In the 2nd and 3rd rounds, the RBs I’m targeting are Jamaal Charles, Ryan Mathews, Matt Forte, Knowshon Moreno, LeSean McCoy and Jonathan Stewart.

Great question!

Let's Rent Some RBs Shall We? WCOFF Draft Round 14

Wed, 26 May 2010 09:48:00 -0700

My Pick: This late in the draft, I like to employ what I like to call the “rent-a-RB” approach. I’ll typically target backup RBs that play behind RBs that have missed time the last 2-3 years and try and steal a few starts on a few to week basis. My RBs are not the strongest part of my team, but if I can steal a few starts here and there at the RB position, then my team as a whole gets stronger. Additionally, should one of these volatile starters miss extended time, then the “handcuff” backs will be fantasy gold. In part time work last year, Snelling averaged over 4 yards a carry, had over 750 total yards, and 5 TDs. He also chipped in with 30 catches which is something that Falcons starter does not do, catch the ball! The Falcons have an easier schedule, so I’d expect Turner to have a bounce back year, but if he misses any time, I’ll be able to plug Snelling in as a RB2 or flex player. I’ll take that kind of potential this late in the draft.

ROUND 14

Bills Are Back - Devin Thomas, Was WR
EarlyBird - Garrett Hartley, NO K
purestrength3 - Derrick Ward, TB RB
Ficitional Thugs - Matt Leinart, ARI QB
JerrysJets - Jason Campbell, Oak QB
HAWKNATION - Correll Buckhalter, Den RB
FantasyLion.com - Jason Snelling, ATL RB
Fantasy Assassins MF - Ravens D/ST
Did this dude just did this? - Joe McKnight, NYJ RB
CSACMA - Earl Bennett, Chi WR
L.A. CONNECTION - Roy Williams, Dal WR
No Mercy - Malcolm Floyd, SD WR

POSITION BREAKDOWN: 4 WRs, 4 RBs, 2 QBs, 1 D/ST, 1 K

Current Roster:

QB - Tom Brady
RB1 - Joseph Addai
RB2 - Ricky Williams
WR1 - Andre Johnson
WR2 - Miles Austin
WR3 - Michael Crabtree
TE - Jermichael Finley
Flex - Thomas Jones or Antonio Bryant
Bench - QB- Brett Favre, RB - Donald Brown, Jason Snelling, WR - Johnny Knox

FantasyLion.com Featured on the BleacherReport.com Chargers Homepage

Tue, 25 May 2010 15:08:32 -0700

I want to thank the folks at BleacherReport.com once again for featuring one of my articles on a team homepage. This time it was my Malcolm Floyd sleeper article. I really appreciate their help in getting the word out about my site and help in saving the world from bad fantasy football advice!

The Fantasy Football Hustle Podcast Episode 2

Tue, 25 May 2010 15:05:38 -0700

In the newest edition of the Fantasy Football Hustle Podcast, I go over a new dynasty league I’m starting. I also cover which RBs I would take in the first round and which ones I’d avoid like the plague. Who will this year’s Chris Johnson be? Check out and find out who I think may be this year’s 1st round diamond in the rough. Be sure to check out Episode 3 this Thursday night at 11pm on Blog Talk Radio. www.blogtalkradio.com/FantasyLion

Puff Puff or Pass on Ricky Williams This Year?

Tue, 25 May 2010 14:56:55 -0700

I was recently asked if Ricky Williams is being overlooked this year. And my answer is yes.

In my World Championships of Fantasy Football Draft that I just finished, I held of on a RB2 and picked Ricky up in the 7th round.

Ricky does it all and Ronnie Brown is a half a year player.I also like the value where you can get Ricky (6th-8th round).

Consider that last year in a points per reception (PPR) format Williams was averaging 15 points a game even with Brown there. That is nothing to balk at as some featured backs struggle to maintain that average.

Ricky actually averaged more points a game during that time than Ryan Grant and Pierre Thomas who are two RB2s that typically cost a 3rd or 4th round pick.

After Brown went down, Ricky was the 7th best RB. Although Ricky is older, there is a lot of upside to be had and it won’t cost you much to find out if he can do it again.

I’m going to target Ricky as my 3rd RB this year, but have no problem if I have to roll with him as my 2nd.

San Diego Super Chargers Super Sleeper: Malcolm Floyd

Sun, 23 May 2010 21:30:00 -0700

Here’s a fantasy football sneaky sleeper I really like, Chargers WR Malcolm Floyd.

With 2 DUI convictions in 2 years, Vincent Jackson will likely be suspended at some point this summer. VJack will probably be hit with a 4-gamer making Floyd a guy I’d begin to target around the 11th round as my 5th or 6th WR.

In those 4 weeks, Floyd will face the 2nd easiest schedule with matchups vs KC, Jac, Sea, and Ari. Those teams gave up an average of 35 points a games to WRs.

I’ve always like Floyd but behind Gates, VJack, and the backs, he doesn’t get a lot of looks. But in week 17 last year as SDs #1 WR, Floyd put up 9 catches for 140 yards, a cool 23 points in PPR. Also, at 6’5, he’s a huge red zone target.

He likely won’t have much value after that, but I’d start him as my flex for those first 4 weeks.

FantasyLion.com Has 2 Articles Featured on 2 BleacherReport.com Homepages in 1 Day

Fri, 21 May 2010 12:43:12 -0700

Now this is just crazy! I couldn’t believe when I saw the Braylon article up on the Jets page. An hour after uploading my article on Antonio Bryant, it makes the Bengals homepage! I feel so blessed. I am very lucky to have 2 articles featured in 1 day! Thank God!

FantasyLion.com's Article on Braylon Edwards Makes the Bleacher Report Homepage

Fri, 21 May 2010 10:03:00 -0700

In one of the more humbling moments of my career, the blog I wrote yesterday made it to the featured article on the Jets homepage at BleacherReport.com. It’s crazy this day and age and the power of the internet. I just love talking about fantasy football and helping people win and get better at. This is so fun for me and to receive any kind of recognition for it is mind-blowing. The article has almost 900 views. That is nuts. If you would have told me that almost 1,000 people would be interested in what I have to say about football, I’d call you crazy. That dog Braylon better not let me down! Who am I kidding? He won’t. Once a dog, always a dog, so DON’T DRAFT HIM!

Braylon "The Dog" Edwards Welcome to the 2010 DO NOT DRAFT List

Thu, 20 May 2010 09:00:00 -0700

Earlier this week someone asked me if they should target Braylon Edwards this year because his stock will be down. That got me thinking, fantasy football consumers need an advocate to help keep them from buying lemons. Enter my newest feature, “The 2010 DO NOT DRAFT” list. Most sites will tell you to avoid or shy away from a guy, but few will tell you to completely stay away in case there’s a slight chance that player doesn’t disappoint, they don’t have to worry about their credibility. Well partners, I’m not that type of guy. If I’m not going to draft a guy, I’m going to tell you not to draft him. I don’t give out advice I, myself, wouldn’t take. Most of the players I’ll tell you to avoid will have a headache factor higher than a potential factor. I love taking risks, but some guys aren’t worth the risk or they’ve burned me before and I’ll never trust them again. Some guys I add to this list may surprise you and you may disagree, that’s fine, go ahead and draft them. I’ve never one to say I told you so, but just remember not drafting one of the guys that end up on this list will be for your own good. Don’t be a sucker, stay away from this list!

The first inductee to the 2010 DO NOT DRAFT list is… Braylon “The Dog” Edwards

Typically, I look for guys coming off down years to grab late a la Cutler, Cooley, Daniels, etc. However, there are some cases guys are what I call flat out dogs. The worst part about dogs is not being able to trust them. I don’t think Braylon cares enough to improve and has rode the laurels of his 2007 season for the last 2 years. You can usually get him in the 7th or 8th round which is his lowest value since 2007, but I don’t trust him. He plays in a run first offense where he’s not even the best WR. He may be more talented than Cotchery, but Cotchery produces consistently, Braylon doesn’t. Furthermore, I don’t think the team would have pursued Santonio Holmes if they were convinced about Braylon. Braylon and Holmes are both in contract years and I doubt the Jets are going to ante up and pay both meaning one of them walks. Holmes is at a disadvantage because he’ll be missing 4 games, but I will not be surprised to see Holmes outproduce Braylon despite Bray Bray getting a 4 game headstart. This is the type of situation I stay away from and let someone else worry about. For the same value, you can get guys like potential star Jeremy Maclin, PPR-machine returning from injury Wes Welker, or the rock steady Hines Ward. I’d take any of those guys before I take Braylon Edwards. Hell, I’d take a disappointing Eddie Royal before I’d touch Edwards. In fact, I’d draft David Carr before I’d draft Braylon and I’m not drafting Carr at all this year and maybe ever again. So you know what that means? It means Bray Bray will find his ass riding pine on my “2010 Do Not Draft List”.