Betting this weekend? Here’s my wildcard lock of the week!
by John Gustafson, john@fantasylion.com
(all statistical info from SportsInsights.com)
With all the sports I watch, sports-handicapping has become a hobby of mine over the years. I don’t ever bet unless I’m in Vegas, but I still like to make picks against the spread to sharpen my skills at capping. I’ve already said that I like the Eagles, Packers, Bengals, and Patriots this weekend, but let’s take a look the betting line.
New York Jets @ Cincinnati Bengals
This game opened up -2.5 and is around -2.5 or -3 depending on the book you go to. Right now the betting is pretty even with 46% on the Jets and 54% on the Bengals. This number would be higher had the Bengals not rolled over last week and a hysteria about the Jets not broke out. I expect this game to be close, but I’m going to take the Bengals to cover the -2.5. Usually teams get 3 points for homefield advantage meaning that if this game were played at a neutral site that the Jets would be a slight half point favorite or even. I just don’t see it that way. Maybe I’m delusional, but there’s a reason the Bengals are 10-6 and hosting this game while the Jets who were 6-8 two weeks ago snuck into the playoffs because their last 2 opponents laid down for them. My delusion ends today and the Bengals show why they’re in the playoffs.
My pick: Bengals -2.5
Philadelphia Eagles @ Dallas Cowboys
With the Cowboys coming off a dominant win last week, they should be the no-brainer pick. However, Vegas doesn’t get rich giving out no-brainer picks. I have the Eagles winning this one outright so the points are a gift. Right now the Eagles are getting 4 and like the NYJ/Cin game, the betting is pretty even with 48% on the Eagles and 52% on the Cowboys. The Cowboys could win, but if they only win by a field goal then Cowboy bettors still lose. It’s hard to beat a team 3 times in one year, especially a team with as much playoff experience as the Eagles. The Cowboys haven’t won a playoff game in over a decade and will have to wait until even longer to end that drought.
My pick: Eagles +4
Baltimore Ravens @ New England Patriots
This line opened up at -4 but is now at -3.5. A -3.5 is a tricky line because even if the Patriots win but only win by a field goal, you’re screwed! However, I don’t think this one will be that close. I see the Pats winning by around 7. Most bettors would agree with 58% on the Pats. Now usually I don’t like being on the same side as the “public” but I don’t see the Ravens winning this game. I think they can keep it close, but we’ll likely see a similar game in which NE won 27-21 earlier this year in week 4. If the Patriots can repeat what they did in week 4, then we’ll see them picking up a nice cover for their backers.
My pick: Patriots -3.5
Green Bay Packers @ Arizona Cardinals (Lock of the week pick)
This game features my lock of the week. I just finished saying that I don’t like being on the same side of the public and with 77% of the public on the Packers this one is looking like a public slaughter. However, there is one instance where I like being with the public and that’s when there’s a huge line movement. This line opened up at Arizona -2.5 and is now at -1.5 for the Packers. That’s a 4 point movement! Now some of that could be due to the Boldin injury, but with Breaston a worthy fill-in, I don’t think that’s what the movement is from. This movement is likely from sharp bettors jumping all over the opportunity to get the Packers and the points and with all the bets/money coming that heavily on one team, it forces the oddsmakers’ hands to move the line otherwise they could be facing huge losses. If the oddsmakers weren’t concerned about all the money coming in on the Packers getting points, they’d say “Ok go ahead and take the Packers and the points because we know the Cards are going to win and win by enough to cover!” and then make out like bandits in what I refer to as a “public slaughter”. Now I already have the Packers winning this one, so I’ll take them to cover the 1.5 as well. I am concerned about taking a road team giving points and almost never do, but I’m going to roll the dice on this one and go as far to say that the Green Bay Packers are my lock of the week this week!
My pick: Packers -1.5 (lock of the week)
Happy betting everyone!
