Week 12 and already looking toward 2010 (sigh)

So I got knocked out of 2 leagues yesterday. I can’t remember a year where I didn’t have all my teams make the playoffs. I know it wasn’t from a lack of preparation because I definitely studied my ass off, but I think it may have been from a lack of perception. Perhaps I’m stuck in my old ways of thinking and falling in love with RBs. This year I was very aggressive in my drafts taking players that weren’t proven, but had upside like Reggie Bush and Eddie Royal. I played to win and went with an all or nothing approach and for the most part came up very, very small. It’s disappointing, but you learn and move forward. One of the things I’m not going to do next year is take a guy just because he’s a RB. With so many teams using the running back by committee approach, backs aren’t the workhorses like they used to be a few years ago. This got me thinking, are RBs worth using high round picks on? While I think some are, but I’m not going to kill myself to have great RBs at the expense of a great WR corps. I’m also going to hold off on QBs and TEs in 2010. There’s only 2 TEs in the top 30 of non QBs in PPR leagues and there’s been a different leading fantasy TE the last 4 years so using a top pick on one of them isn’t wise. Also, through 12 weeks, there’s 10 QBs averaging 20 points or more a game, so chances are you can wait to grab a good late round value next year, like Big Ben has been this year.

Another reason I’m going to target WRs over RBs is because most leagues now start at least 3 WRs and if you can have 3 top WRs then chances are your opponent won’t because there aren’t as many good WRs as there are RBs to the number of starting positions available. For instance, let’s say there’s only 15 good WRs, but there’s 20 good RBs, well if you use that pick on getting a good RB but can only start 2 RBs then the 3rd RB will waste away on your bench. Now I know some leagues start 3 RBs, but there will be late round values like Tim Hightower was this year that you can target for your 3rd back. Here’s a hypothetical look at having a WR advantage…

  • RB1- 15 points (3rd round pick)
  • RB2- 12 points (5th round pick)
  • WR1- 18 points (1st round pick)
  • WR2- 18 points (2nd round pick)
  • WR3- 15 points (4th round pick)
  • Total- 78 points

over

  • RB1- 20 points (1st round pick)
  • RB2- 15 points (2nd round pick)
  • WR1- 15 points (3rd round pick)
  • WR2- 15 points (4th round pick)
  • WR3- 8 points (5th round pick)
  • Total 73 points

This could be a stretch, but here’s a look at points per game for the top 30 non-QBs in PPR leagues…

  1. RB- Chris Johnson, 24.0
  2. WR- Wes Welker, 23.76
  3. RB- Maurice Jones-Drew, 22.46
  4. RB- Ray Rice, 22.12
  5. RB- Adrian Peterson, 21.03
  6. WR- Reggie Wayne, 21.0
  7. WR- Randy Moss, 20.55
  8. RB- Frank Gore, 19.74
  9. WR- Larry Fitzgerald, 19.24
  10. RB- Steven Jackson, 18.35
  11. RB- DeAngelo Williams, 17.78
  12. WR- Andre Johnson, 17.23
  13. RB- Joseph Addai, 17.18
  14. WR- Steve Smith, 17.17
  15. TE- Dallas Clark, 17.13
  16. RB- Ricky Williams, 16.86
  17. WR- Hines Ward, 16.41
  18. TE- Vernon Davis, 16.18
  19. WR- Sidney Rice, 16.13
  20. WR- Mike Sims-Walker, 16.1
  21. WR- DeSean Jackson, 15.95
  22. WR- Roddy White, 15.93
  23. WR- Vincent Jackson, 15.79
  24. WR- Miles Austin, 15.77
  25. RB- Ronnie Brown, 15.74
  26. RB- Steve Slaton, 15.58
  27. RB- Tim Hightower, 15.55
  28. RB- Michael Turner, 15.49
  29. RB- Cedric Benson, 15.39
  30. WR- Donald Driver & Brandon Marshall (tie), 15.35

The reason I didn’t include QBs is because there are currently 10 QBs who average more than 20 points a game. Outside of the QBs, the top 30 breaks down like this; 14 RBs, 15 WRs, and 2 TEs. So as you can see RBs may not be as valuable as they once were as WRs slightly edged them out for the top scorers. What’s even more interesting is the RBs that were drafted high but not scoring in the top 30 based on a point per game avg including; Matt Forte, LT, Brian Westbrook, Reggie Bush, Brandon Jacobs, Pierre Thomas, Clinton Portis, Marion Barber, and Kevin Smith. So next year to avoid one of these players I may try to secure some top WRs first. Call me crazy, but I won’t hesitate to draft Wes Welker in the 2010 first round.

2 years ago
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