Opening Night Betting Preview
Welcome to the Vegas section of Pyromaniac.com where we take a look at each game from a betting perspective. I’m going to give a brief description of each game and which teams I think are worth taking a chance on. You can choose to go heavy on one of the teams or spread it out. It’s up to you. There’s an argument to be said for either way. The odds are from Matchbook.com. I’ll rank each team on a 1-5 scale with a 1 being a bet you should pass on and a 5 being a must play.
With a rematch of last year’s NFC Championship Game, we have the Vikings visiting the Saints once again this Thursday to kick off week 1.In that game last January, the Saints were a 4 point favorite and did not cover in their 31-28 overtime victory. Keep in mind that was also a game where the Saints won the turnover battle 5-1.
What’s interesting is this game opened up with the same line of -4 and has since moved to -4.5 with some books having the line at -5.5. The line movement is probably due to all the public money that’s come in on the Saints.
Well it would make logical sense that the Saints would roll again in this one being the defending champs and the Vikings having all their issues, right?
Not in my opinion.
There’s a reason the public gets slayed most weeks and in such a high profile game, and with 65% of the money on the Saints, it looks like the public also known as “the squares” could be in for another disappointment.
When you bet, you have to have a contrarian attitude before leaving your hard-earned cash in the hands of overpaid athletes. Before you lay almost a TD on the defending champs, play Devil’s advocate with yourself and ask why this bet is appearing to be so obvious.
Once you do, you’ll discover that there’s some deeper angles that could favor the Vikings.
1. The revenge factor: one of the more underrated factors in football, but the Vikings will come into this one with a lot to prove especially considering they should have won the NFC Championship.
2. The turnover battle: Last time they got slaughtered in the turnover battle, 5-1. That won’t happen this time. If the Vikings turned the ball over 2 less times last time, they could have and should have blown the Saints out. I wouldn’t be surprised if the Vikings win easily in this win by keeping the turnover battle close and controlling the clock with a heavy dose of Adrian Peterson.
3. The points: I only take the underdogs if I think they can win outright. And I do in this one, so getting the 4.5 is a gift. If the Vikings can keep it close, then you’ll be a winner.
It’s going to take a lot of nerve to go against the grain by taking the Vikings in this one even though the obvious play is the Saints. Fight the urge to play the obvious and take the Vikes and the points and start your season off in the positive.
Vikings +4.5 Bet Strength: 4 out of 5
