by John Gustafson, john@fantasylion.com

Did you get off to a bad start last week in your One & Done contest? Did you come out guns-a-blazin, but not sure what do to? If you came out cooler than cool (ice cold!) or hotter than Fresno on an afternoon in July, then this article is for you. Let’s keep this simple. There are 2 things, yes that’s right, just 2 things you’ll need to do if you hope to take down your O&D contest.

Step 1: Plan out the rest of the playoffs

Now I have the Saints, Cowboys, Ravens, and Jets losing this week. If you disagree, that’s fine! I went 0-4 last week, so wtf do I know? But it is important to plan out who you think is going to win the rest of the way. Once you’ve done that you will want to pick the best players from the losing teams each week. So in my 2 O&D contests my teams will look like this for this week…

Team 1- QB- Brees, RB1- Felix, RB2- Pierre T, WR1- Colston, WR2- Wayne, TE- Keller, Coach- Caldwell, Flex- S. Greene

Team 2- QB- Brees, RB1- Felix, RB2- Pierre T, WR1- Colston, WR2- Wayne, WR3- Harvin, TE- Keller, K- Hartley, D- Jets, Flex- S. Greene

You’ll see that all of my players are from the teams I have losing with the exception of Wayne and Harvin. If you’re wondering why I’m going with Harvin & Wayne, I’ll get to that in a second.

Step 2- Know your resources

Now that 1 week is in the books, it makes it a little easier to plan out the rest of your lineups. The most effective way to do this is knowing your resources. Once you know which guys you have this week, then you can do a mock lineup for week 3, then a final mock lineup for the Super Bowl. I understand that the odds of you getting all the games right here on out is slim, but as that little kid from Angels in the Outfield would say, “hey it could happen” and if it does, you’ll be money baby! In the conference championships, I have Minnesota and Indianapolis losing, so my lineup will be full of their players. Here’s what my mock lineup for week 3 looks like…

Team 1- QB- Manning, RB1- AP, RB2- Addai, WR1- S. Rice, WR2- Collie or Garcon, TE- Clark, Flex- Boldin, Doucet, or Malcolm Floyd, Coach- Whisenhunt

Team 2- QB- Manning, RB1- AP, RB2- Addai, WR1- S. Rice, WR2- Collie or Garcon, WR3- Boldin, Doucet, or Floyd, TE- Clark, K- Rackers, D- Cards, Flex- Collie, Garcon, Boldin, Doucet, or Floyd,

At this point in week 3, I can start to narrow down the players I want to use. So even though I have the Cards and Chargers going to the Super Bowl, I can still use some of their players here because I will still have enough solid players left from their 2 teams the following week for the Super Bowl. Which is why I could use Harvin and Wayne this week (week 2) because I’m aware of who I have left and where I plan to use them. Using Harving & Wayne this week could really pay off for a few reasons. Let’s say I’m wrong about who wins, well then I got to use both guys this week. Also, what if the Colts win, but the Jets beat the Chargers? Well then I’ll be glad I used Wayne this week and not next week when he draws Revis. It can get a little confusing but there is definitely a method to the madness. If any of this gets too confusing, email me and we can talk it out some more. If you’re still with me, then let’s move ahead to the Super Bowl.

If all goes as planned then I will have gotten games out of studs from the losing teams and have set myself up for the kill with a team full of relevent players in the Super Bowl. Here’s what my Super Bowl lineups would look like…

Team 1- QB- Rivers, RB1- LT, RB2- Beanie, WR1- Jackson, WR2- Boldin/Doucet/Floyd, TE- Gates, Coach- Tuner, Flex- Hightower

Team 2- QB- Rivers, RB1- LT, RB2- Beanie, WR1- Jackson, WR2- Boldin/Doucet/Floyd, WR3- Boldin/Doucet/Floyd/Nanee/Urban TE- Gates, K- Kaeding, D- Chargers, Flex- Hightower

I’m sure I’ll have to do another re-evaluation next week, but if I do, I’ll still be ok. I left myself options on the Saints, Jets, Ravens, and Cowboys so that if I have to do damage control next week or even longer, than I’ll be in a position to do that. But hey, let’s cross that bridge when we get there!

I just got an email from my boy @FatKat52 with this video. CJ is incredible. I’ve said it once and I’ll say it again, I could watch him run the ball alllllllllllllllllllllll dayyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyy longgggggggggggggg!!!! Watching CJ run reminds me of playing the original Tecmo Bowl and playing as the Raiders just so you could run with Bo Jackson. You’d get some daylight then just take off! Kind of like this video…

That’s how easy CJ makes it look! Thanks Bruce for the awesome video and I hope I get the #1 pick in next year’s drafts so I can get me some CJ28!

Controversial article today by the Lube. Ariticle by Matt Lubisich of www.TheSportsLube.com.

thesportslube:

Mainstream media and new age fans have ZERO sense or knowledge of sports history. Case in point, the on-going argument that Peyton Manning is the best Quarterback Ever based on his Statistics and his regular season win-loss record.

Arguing using stats as a backup is one of the most slippery slopes there is. What people are not taking into account with Manning is that he currently plays in a league that invites people to throw the ball and discourages people from covering receivers and hitting quarterbacks. It has never been easier to throw the ball in the NFL. It’s like 2 hand touch out there, as long as you don’t touch low or high on the qb because thats a penalty. Mrs. Lubisich could be a QB. And I’m talking about Grandma.

If you want to know what Manning would have been like as a player back when the NFL was a real football league all you need to do is look at his performances versus the Patriots through the 2004 season. That year in the playoffs the Pats manhandled Manning 20-3, and Manning and Co. complained so much about contact initiated by the Pats defense against Indy receivers that the NFL changed the rules about contact in the Secondary.That game would signal the end of the Pats dominance of Manning.

Only after the NFL changed the rules to better fit the passing game did Manning finally beat the Patriots in the playoffs and go on to win the superbowl. How can anyone stand up for him and say he’s the best when the NFL had to cater to his game for him to reach it’s height as an athlete?

Passing stats now are like Home Run stats were in the late 90’s for baseball. They are all BS and will continue to be until the NFL allows defenses to play defense again. Guys like Bradshaw, Staubach and Tarkenton played when defenses mugged their receivers. Guys like Fouts, Montana and Marino played in balanced times. Now a guy like Matt Schaub leads the league in passing yards. Unbelievable.

Perhaps the Indy receivers should have Lubed up before those Pats games and the games would still be a little more fair.

Peyton Manning is a great. But against defenses that played like they did in the old days Manning was no match. You can say without a doubt that if Staubach played today he’d be amazing in the No Contact League we have now. But if Manning played when Staubach did he would have played like he did all those times against the Pats before the rules changed.

That is why Peyton Manning is not the best QB that has ever played the game.

by John Gustafson, john@fantasylion.com

Well after one of the worst playoff weekends of my life (as far as picking games), I’m back to the drawing board. If you need some help with your One & Down leagues this week, perhaps this can help.

Note- These rankings are for PPR leagues. The rankings are based on the number of games I think each guy will play. The number of projected games are in ( ).

Quarterbacks

1. Philip Rivers, SD (3)- I still have the Chargers going to the Super Bowl but I’d rather go with Manning, Brees, or Warner this week.
2. Kurt Warner, Ari (3)- I’ve already used Warner but if you haven’t this would be a great week to use him because he’s likely in for a shootout. I have the Cards going to the Super Bowl now. If you disagree and think this is the end of Warner’s career then go out with a bang with him.
3. Peyton Manning, Ind (2)- The Colts caught a break not getting the Pats. I’m not seeing a Ravens upset. Personally, I’m saving Manning until next week.
4. Brent Farve, Min (2)- The old man should be in for a shootout as well and hopefully he has enough tricks up his sleeve. If he does, then the Vikes advance like I think they will.
5. Drew Brees, NO (1)- This week I’ll be using Brees. I haven’t been a believer in the Saints all year and they are up against the Cards who are a on another team of destiny run in the NFC?
6. Tony Romo, Dal (1)- Most people used Romo last week, but if you didn’t then this would be another good week to use him. The good news is the Vikes D isn’t what it used to be. If Romo and the Boys win this week then I’ll have Romo available next week.
7. Mark Sanchez, NYJ (1)- I said last week that if Sanchez didn’t blow it in week 1 that he would do it this week. I’m sticking by that.
8. Joe Flacco, Bal (1)- Flacco threw for 34 yards last week. No that is not a typo, 34 yards and he still won. That gives me very little confidence in him this week. Plus there’s a ton of better options.

Running Backs

1. Adrian Peterson, Min (2)- I’m looking for a heavy dose of All Day this weekend. I like them to win and the Vikings are more than capable of making a Super Bowl run. I am waiting to use AP next week.
2. LaDainian Tomlinson, SD (3)- LT has a very tough match this week so I wouldn’t use him. I’m probably going to wait to use him in the Super Bowl. A couple of cheap TDs this week may not be out of the question.
3. Joseph Addai, Ind (2)- I’ve got the Colts winning 2 now making Addai a top 3 back. A Super Bowl run is not out of the question for the Colts. After all, if they win this week, the Super Bowl will have to go through them.
4. Ray Rice, Bal (1)- After last week’s beastly performance, Rice should be in for a heavy dose of touches again this week. If you missed out on his monster game last week, use him this week!
5. Beanie Wells, Ari (3)- Beanie had a solid game last week and should be in for a nice workload as the Cards may want to slow this game down. I’m waiting to use Beanie, but he’s not a bad option this week.
6. Darren Sproles, SD (3)- Sproles could be the X factor in the running game for the Bolts this week, but I’m saving him for later in the playoffs.
7. Felix Jones, Dal (1)- I have the Cowboys losing this week, so I’m going to make sure I get a piece of Jones before they head out. I’m starting him this week.
8. Shonn Greene, NY (1)- Greene has averaged over 16 rushing attempts over the last 3 weeks and showed last week that he can break off a big run. I’ve already used T. Jones and don’t think that the Jets can win again this week, so I’ll be using Greene as a flex.
9. Thomas Jones, NYJ (1)- Jones numbers weren’t great last week but he did get 15 carries and a TD. This week if the Jets are going with the “hot hand” approach, Jones could see the majority of carries like he’s used to should he get hot.
10. Pierre Thomas, NO (1)- This is a really low ranking for PT, but not if the Saints lose this week. Because I’m not confident in the Saints’ ability this week, I’ll be using PT as one of my backs.
11. Willis McGahee, Bal (1) - That’s 2 big weeks in a row for McGahee so there’s not reason to believe that he can’t do it again this week. I don’t think the Ravens will be able to run the ball 52 times this week so that could mean a decrease in touches for McGahee. He’s not a bad option and this may be your last chance to use him.
12. Tim Hightower, Ari (3)- He’ll likely be in a shootout this week, but I’m going to hold off and wait to use him hoping that the Cards make a Super Bowl run.
13. Reggie Bush, NO (1)- His role varies week to week but he could be the X factor in this week’s game. If you have to use him, this would be the week to do it. I’ll save him just in case the Saints advance.
14. Tashard Choice, Dal (1)- Choice had a nice game last week but I wouldn’t use him this week. He’d be a damage control guy that I’d wait to use in case the Cowboys win this week.
15. Donald Brown, Ind (3)- It’s hard to rank Brown any higher until I see what kind of touches he’ll see this week. He’ll move up by default if the Colts win. I wouldn’t use him this week.
16. Marion Barber, Dal (1)- Thanks for showing up last week Marion and screwing over everybody that had any confidence in you. This week we have none.

Other what if long shots worth considering but I’m going to hold off on..

• Mike Bell, No
• Chester Taylor, Min
• Mike Tolbert, SD

Check back later tonight for the WR & TE rankings!

Last night I was helping my boy Zack get his own website up and going. This is one of his first posts. In the offseason, Zack creates these bad ass life size wood cut-outs. Zack and I are planning a big project to help the victims of Haiti so stay tuned for a big announcement very soon!Check it out! Email Zack @ contact@zakarianfollett.com and follow him on Twitter!

zakarianfollett:

Recent projects

Another entertaining article by my buddy Matt Lubisich of TheSportsLube.com

thesportslube:

Lane Kiffin is my favorite coach in every level and of every sport. The reason why is simple, like everyone else that watched Titanic more than once, I love disasters. Ok Kate Winslet’s “art” scene has a lot to do with watching Titanic but I digress.

Simply put, my boy Lane is a walking/breathing/s*** talking disaster. First he left the comfy confines of USC to be the head coach of the Train Wreck that is the Oakland Raiders. How delusional is he to think that was going to work out? Then by the good grace of God, or some very funny deal he made with the devil, he lands the head coaching gig at the University of Tennessee. The Raiders debacle did not teach him humility as he claimed he’d beat Florida and also made unfounded claims that Florida’s coach Urban Meyer violated NCAA regulations.

Clearly the man has cajones the size of Mark Mcgwire’s roided up biceps. He went a respectable 7 and 6 this season, but lost to Meyer’s Gators and nothing came of his claims about Urban breaking rules. And somehow after all this good stuff, he lands one of the top 5 coaching jobs in the country as USC’s heach coach.

USC could have hired ANYONE in the country, and they chose Kiffin. I cannot wait to see what happens. My guess is that they wanted someone that created enough of a circus so that the current probes into the school would be dwarfed by the attention that will by drawn by this 1-man wrecking crew. Why else would they pass over a nation of more respectable and successful candidates?

The Trojans will probably get away with just a slap on the wrist for their bad deeds. After all, the NCAA no longer has a need to punish them because they just gave themselves a bigger beatdown than the NCAA could have ever dreamed of giving them.

If you’re going out tonight be sure to pack some Lube!

I love when offensive guys declare for the NFL draft. That’s the first time when I start to lick my chops about a guy’s fantasy potential. I get especially giddy over guys expected to be selected in the first round. In RookieBlitz.com’s latest edition of NFL Draft Bound, they take a look at Notre Dame’s electrifying WR, Golden Tate. If you haven’t had the pleasure of seeing Notre Dame’s golden boy (pun totally intended), then check out this highlight video.

FantasyLion.com Vlog Episode 19: I’m easy come, easy go..

Recap my awful weekend of picks, hung out with my boy Z, let you know what’s going on this week on The Lion and a special shoutout to my boy Lube of TheSportsLube.com

-jg

Article by Matt Lubisich of TheSportsLube.com

thesportslube:

The NFL is a funny league filled with hilarious egos. Enter Jim Mora who led the consistently inconsistent Falcons for a few years and just got fired after a 5 and 11 season with the Seahawks. According to Mora he’s “shocked” that he was fired and that he has never failed in his life.

The concept of failure must allude Mora. His team won 31% of their games this season and since the NFL doesn’t have a No Child Left Behind policy he does not get a passing grade in my book.

He also gets a fail for blaming his Kicker Olindo Mare after a loss early this season. Mare made 5 out of 7 field goals that day, or 71.4%, which if we use Mora’s sense of math is off the freakin charts good. My question for Jimmy is, why on earth did you have to settle for 7 field goals in 1 game? Is it maybe because your gameplan sucked? Blaming the kicker because your entire offense failed to score a touchdown 7 times is about as cowardly as you can get as a coach.

Mora took an OK team and made it a really bad team. Starting QB Matt Hasselbeck started just 7 games in 2008 and they went 4 and 12 so you could blame injuries to your QB for that. But Hasselbeck started 14 games and the seahawks went 5 and 11 in a weak division in 2009. So lets blame the Kicker everyone.

I’m sure Mora will catch on somewhere else, but I don’t know why. Maybe USC is next for him. That would be funny. But for now I’ll say adios Jimmy.

To conclude today’s rant I would like to give a shoutout, or a writeout as I’d like to call it since i’m not shouting, to my buddy John Gustafson who encouraged me to start this blog and he set it up for me too. You can check out John’s awesome fantasy blog at fantasylion.com.

Always remember to Lube it up!!

This was the podcast that Taz hosted today. It was great and features some great NFL playoff banter. Taz was kind enough to welcome Bryan from RookieBlitz.com and myself on to talk about us collaborating. Thanks again to Taz for having me on his show and I hope you all enjoy it!

Check back later! I’ve got some exciting things a-brewin!

My friend just sent this to me. Totally awesome video featuring LT. Go Bolts!

The first week of the NFL playoffs did not disappoint and soon the Super Bowl will be here. Before we know it the NFL Draft will be in our midst and my friends at RookieBlitz.com have put together another great draft prospect preview. This time it’s Oklahoma State’s standout WR, Dez Bryant. There are several teams looking for a WR and could fill that position in the draft including the Bears, Bills, and Panthers. Bryant might be the WR they’re looking for.

by John Gustafson, john@fantasylion.com

• QB- Aaron Rodgers - I had Rodgers as the #1 QB headed into the into the playoffs and he did not disappoint this week. His 422 passing yards, 13 rushing yards, 5 total TDs and int were good for a position high 43.4 points. Unfortunately, the Packers didn’t have enough in the tank to move on but for those who had Rodgers this week he got them enough points for 2 weeks.
• RB1- Ray Rice - I didn’t think the Ravens could do it this week, but they did and Rice owners benefited. His 159 yards and 2 scores were good for a position high of 27.9 points. Luckily for Rice owners, he’ll live to see another week and with a matchup vs the high scoring Colts, the Ravens are going to rely heavily on Rice again in the divisional matchup.
• RB2- Cedric Benson - Benson looked like the only Bengal who came to play this week and his numbers showed. He combined for 181 total yards, found the endzone and chipped in with 3 receptions for an outstanding 27.1 points. I saved Benson this week to use him next week, but I will not be getting that opportunity.
• WR1- Steve Breaston - Earlier today I was kicking myself for benching Julian Edelman and starting Breaston, but it turned out to be the right decision. I had Breaston in 3 leagues today and loved his 153 total yard, 7 reception and a score performance. Thanks Steve!
• WR2- Jeremy Maclin - Maclin came on in a big way for the few that started him this week. DeSean virtually disappeared and Maclin reaped the benefits for a 7 catch, 146 yards, 1 TD game. Props to all out there who started Maclin.
• WR3- Greg Jennings - I loved how Jennings came on the 2nd half of the year and like Rodgers, I had him ranked high as I expected the Packers to make it to the Super Bowl. That didn’t happen but Jennings was kind of enough to get me 27 points (8 catches, 130 yards, 1 TD) before calling it a season. Rodgers just missed Jennings on a long bomb in OT also that would have given him even bigger numbers and the Packers at a chance to move forward.
• TE- Jermichael Finley - I’ve been on the Jermichael bandwagon ever since he returned from his injury earlier this year. I was planning on saving him in my survivor leagues, but in one league I started him and certainly glad I did. I thought that by starting Finley I’d get an advantage over those who started Celek and Witten and that gamble paid off huge as Finley went for 159 yards on 6 catches for 21.9 points. Too bad he’s done, because I would have loved to use him later this playoff season.
• Flex- Larry Fitzgerald - Fitz is a must start every week and this week he did not disappoint. Fitz had a great game netting 2 TDs on 6 catches and 82 yards. Congrats to everyone who drafted Fitz as I now think the Cards have a great chance to make it to the Super Bowl. I used him in all of my survivor leagues, so even though I don’t get to use him again, his 26.2 points might be his best performance of the playoff season.

I hope everyone had a great fantasy week and check back tomorrow for more recaps.

by John Gustafson, john@fantasylion.com

(all statistical info from SportsInsights.com)

With all the sports I watch, sports-handicapping has become a hobby of mine over the years. I don’t ever bet unless I’m in Vegas, but I still like to make picks against the spread to sharpen my skills at capping. I’ve already said that I like the Eagles, Packers, Bengals, and Patriots this weekend, but let’s take a look the betting line.

New York Jets @ Cincinnati Bengals

This game opened up -2.5 and is around -2.5 or -3 depending on the book you go to. Right now the betting is pretty even with 46% on the Jets and 54% on the Bengals. This number would be higher had the Bengals not rolled over last week and a hysteria about the Jets not broke out. I expect this game to be close, but I’m going to take the Bengals to cover the -2.5. Usually teams get 3 points for homefield advantage meaning that if this game were played at a neutral site that the Jets would be a slight half point favorite or even. I just don’t see it that way. Maybe I’m delusional, but there’s a reason the Bengals are 10-6 and hosting this game while the Jets who were 6-8 two weeks ago snuck into the playoffs because their last 2 opponents laid down for them. My delusion ends today and the Bengals show why they’re in the playoffs.

My pick: Bengals -2.5

Philadelphia Eagles @ Dallas Cowboys

With the Cowboys coming off a dominant win last week, they should be the no-brainer pick. However, Vegas doesn’t get rich giving out no-brainer picks. I have the Eagles winning this one outright so the points are a gift. Right now the Eagles are getting 4 and like the NYJ/Cin game, the betting is pretty even with 48% on the Eagles and 52% on the Cowboys. The Cowboys could win, but if they only win by a field goal then Cowboy bettors still lose. It’s hard to beat a team 3 times in one year, especially a team with as much playoff experience as the Eagles. The Cowboys haven’t won a playoff game in over a decade and will have to wait until even longer to end that drought.

My pick: Eagles +4

Baltimore Ravens @ New England Patriots

This line opened up at -4 but is now at -3.5. A -3.5 is a tricky line because even if the Patriots win but only win by a field goal, you’re screwed! However, I don’t think this one will be that close. I see the Pats winning by around 7. Most bettors would agree with 58% on the Pats. Now usually I don’t like being on the same side as the “public” but I don’t see the Ravens winning this game. I think they can keep it close, but we’ll likely see a similar game in which NE won 27-21 earlier this year in week 4. If the Patriots can repeat what they did in week 4, then we’ll see them picking up a nice cover for their backers.

My pick: Patriots -3.5

Green Bay Packers @ Arizona Cardinals (Lock of the week pick)

This game features my lock of the week. I just finished saying that I don’t like being on the same side of the public and with 77% of the public on the Packers this one is looking like a public slaughter. However, there is one instance where I like being with the public and that’s when there’s a huge line movement. This line opened up at Arizona -2.5 and is now at -1.5 for the Packers. That’s a 4 point movement! Now some of that could be due to the Boldin injury, but with Breaston a worthy fill-in, I don’t think that’s what the movement is from. This movement is likely from sharp bettors jumping all over the opportunity to get the Packers and the points and with all the bets/money coming that heavily on one team, it forces the oddsmakers’ hands to move the line otherwise they could be facing huge losses. If the oddsmakers weren’t concerned about all the money coming in on the Packers getting points, they’d say “Ok go ahead and take the Packers and the points because we know the Cards are going to win and win by enough to cover!” and then make out like bandits in what I refer to as a “public slaughter”. Now I already have the Packers winning this one, so I’ll take them to cover the 1.5 as well. I am concerned about taking a road team giving points and almost never do, but I’m going to roll the dice on this one and go as far to say that the Green Bay Packers are my lock of the week this week!

My pick: Packers -1.5 (lock of the week)

Happy betting everyone!