by John Gustafson, john@fantasylion.com
It’s my favorite time of the football offseason, free agency! I could give two you-know-whats about the scouting combine, because most of that is hype. But I digress, this offseason should be a crazy one so I wanted to started a diary of my thoughts on the free agency period and how it relates to fantasy football. Check back here throughout the next few weeks to get my take on what’s going on. I will try to update this a few times a week.
Friday, March 5th
Chester Taylor to the Bears, boo. Sorry for you Charger fans, he would have been a great pick up, but not all hope is lost. There are still some quality backs out there (Fred Jackson, Jerome Harrison, Thomas Jones, Pierre Thomas). The Bears also paid him $12.5 million which could have gone towards reuniting Marshall and Cutler. Big mistake if you let Marshall slip away Chicago.
Futhermore, Seattle is now interested in Marshall. Marshall will be a great pickup wherever he goes, but Seattle’s subpar QB situation has me wishing Marshall went somewhere with a good to great QB so Marshall can continue to put up beastly numbers. He’ll still get his, but with the likes of Seneca Wallace or the oft-injured Matt Hassleback throwing him the ball, he may be inconsistent, but then again it may be just what Matt the Hassle needs.
Before I get into my 49ers dream player, I want to get back to the Chargers. I like that they re-signed Darren Sproles. $7 million is too much to pay a 3rd down back but Sproles is also a great special teams player and hey it’s not my money so what do I care? The Chargers still need a 1st & 2nd down back to get 15-20 carries or so with Sproles getting 5-10 carries and 3rd down duties. However, what no one is talking about is the other Chargers RB, Mike Tolbert. Tolbert will be a 3rd year player out of Coastal Carolina. He flew under the radar last year, but managed to grab my attention around week 11. Should the Chargers not sign another back and promote Tolbert, Tolbert could become a household fantasy football name if he produces like he did this year in 2010. Tolbert quietly amassed 4 touchdowns, 17 catches, and averaged almost 6 yards a carry in very part time work. I’m not going to go out on a limb and call him the next big thing, but he’s definitely a guy I will have my eye on this offseason.
I have been keeping my fingers crossed that some Anquan Boldin to the 49ers talk will arise, but I doubt it will happen. I fell in love with Boldin because of his toughness. The dude broke his jaw on this hit (if I remember correctly) only to return weeks later. I can’t remember if his jaw was completely healed when he returned but I doubt it as broken jaws don’t heal overnight. It doesn’t really matter, the point is the guy is tough as nails and severly underrated. If he were the #1 on any other team, he’d probably get more credit, but playing alongside Larry Fitzgerald, it’s easy to see why he isn’t in the spotlight like he should. I think my pipedream of Boldin going to the Niners will soon deflate as ESPN’s Adam Schefter (who is the best in the business) is reporting that Baltimore and Kansas City are the leading candidates. As a fantasy footballer, I would love to see him go to either place. In Baltimore he would be the true #1 WR they have been needing. Current #1 Derrick Mason has been solid, but he’s more of a #2 WR playing a #1 by default. As far as KC, their O really turned it on the 2nd half of the year. Add Boldin to the mix with Bowe and Charles and they have themselves a nice little 3-headed monster.
The Lions brought in Nate Burleson from the Seahawks. Burleson is a guy I’ve always liked, but he’s not consistent enough. One week he comes out of nowhere and appears to be the waiver wire savior, then the next week he does nothing, so you bench him, only to see him go off, then you start him the week after and he gets hurt. Oh yea, I’m hip to your game Burleson. The Lions overpaid for him, but again, not my money. However, it is nice to see them spend some money and at least look like they’re trying to improve. If Burleson can stay healthy (and that’s a huge if) then he’ll make a great complimentary WR to Megatron (aka Calvin Johnson for those new to the football scene). Megatron’s stock is down coming off an injury and could be a nice value if he falls into the late 3rd or early 4th round next year. This obviously helps Stafford out as well who was a pretty decent fantasy QB for being a rookie on a crappy team in 2009. The Lions still have a long way to go but they’re definitely make steps in the right direction.
Finally, in a move that has me scratching my head, my 49ers brought in David Carr. Why? Now I went to Fresno St and was there for the Carr glory days and am by no means a Carr-hater, but the guy has not been a good pro at all. He’s not better than Alex Smith and probably not even better than Shaun Hill. I’ve only seen a little bit out of the 49ers other QB, Nate Davis, but what I did see out of him, I liked. I would rather take my chances with Davis over Carr. Carr, if signed, will probably be too expensive and do very little. I share the same sentiments as 49ers LB Patrick Willis who tweeted this earlier today about the situation, “for real for what. we have 3 qb’s that are better then him. That’s a waste of his time.” Well said P-Willy, well said.
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Zack’s auction is up with the help of the Detroit Lions and the NFL. If you want to win tickets to the Super Bowl and help out Haiti, bid here.
Here’s some more info from NFL.com… Zack Follett wants to auction off 2 Super Bowl tickets, each valued at $900. In addition, he has created a wood sculpture that should is included in the package and is pictured above. All proceeds from this auction will go directly to a non-profit organization (likely Red Cross) for use in the Haiti Relief efforts.
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“Did you see what happened Joe?” “No Troy I was busy Monologuing.”
My boy is on point again in his latest blog. Thanks to Matt Lubisich of TheSportsLube.com for this latest diddy.
The first 2 weeks of Playoff football have been miserable featuring 6 blowouts, 2 close games and an endless amount of mind numbing commentary from the so-called experts. How on earth do these people keep their jobs? I sometimes mute the TV and just watch the game because the alternative leads you to a few of the following wonderful nuggets from this last weekend….
In the pregame show of the Jets-Chargers game Phil Simms said the key to the game for the Jets was to “Fear all the Chargers Options.” Well there’s a hell of a gameplan. So if Simms was the coach he would address his guys at practice and before the game telling them, “Fear the Chargers.” Um thanks coach. How is that analyzing anything? Simms had all week to come up with something interesting to say and that’s what he came up with. Just fear them. Since the Jets won does that mean that they played scared the whole game? Way to go Phil.
Next was a great incident in the Dallas-Minnesota game where Tony Romo fumbled a snap and Troy Aikman went on for over a minute about how one of the Vikings linemen got in and disrupted the play forcing the fumble. Troy, who had more than a few concussions in his day, obviously has an active imagination because it was clear to everyone else that Romo just dropped the ball and no one was close to him. Perhaps Troy had dozed off and the crowd woke him up so he had to say something.
I can’t totally blame Troy for that though. If I had to sit in a booth for 3 hours listening to Joe Buck talk my mind would wander too. Buck is possibly the worst commentator in the universe. He drones on about nothing, he has no inflection in his voice and he never gets excited. Seriously Joe, pop a viagra before the next big game and see what happens. Joe’s ideal woman would have to be a blowup doll because it’s lifeless and he can do all the talking.
The system of finding commentators is broken. The only reason Joe Buck has a job is because his dad was a famous commentator. The only reason Simms and Aikman have jobs is because they were famous quarterbacks. But that does not mean that they should be commentating sports games. To play sports you need to have talent, why should commentating on sports be different?
Always remember, a little Lube goes a long way.
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I can’t say that I don’t disagree. A lot of what’s said here is why I’ve grown to dislike Brent Farve. That and because he was a 49er killer. Article by Matt Lubisich of TheSportsLube.com
Either way NFL fans were screwed. We’d either get another week of BS about how the Cowboys are finally going to win a Super Bowl with the wanna be star Tony Romo, or we’d get another week of BS about football’s ultimate Villain, Brett Favre.
Maybe I’d like him more if he spelled his name right, seriously it should be Farve. Maybe I’d like him more if he didn’t play the martyr in Green Bay after he created the whole retirement situation a few years ago. Maybe I’d like him more if he wasn’t such an attention demanding diva.
But when you break it down there isn’t a more selfish person playing in the NFL today. The only reason the media loves him so much is because he gives the media something to do in the offseason with his yearly Hamlet act. “To Be or Not To Be…” of course he’s coming back! He just wants more attention!!
The Favre/Media love affair is more disgusting than your average Donkey Show. Today the Vikings were up 27-3 with 1:55 to play in the game but Favre wasn’t done. He had to throw just 1 more touchdown pass to make it 34-3 because obviously the game was too close for comfort. Naturally though, all people talked about is how that’s his career high for TD passes in a playoff game. If it was the Patriots, Bill Belichick and Tom Brady would be getting roasted right now.
Favre doesn’t care about his fans, he won’t listen to his coaches as evidenced when he wouldn’t allow his head coach to bench him a few weeks ago, and all he does care about is Brett Favre.
Someone get this man Mustache and a bald cat named Bigglesworth, he’s taken care of the rest.
by John Gustafson, john@fantasylion.com
Here are my actual lineups and where I stand in each contest.
The FantasyLion.com One & Done Contest, currently 5th out of 74 teams
@n42d’s Fantasy Foursome, currently 1st out of 4 teams (this is a draft league)
@FantasyTaz’s BlogTalkRadio.com Playoffs Championships, currently 5th out of 28 teams (One and Done Contest)
@FatKat52’s Don’t Suck Playoffs Contest, currently 1st out of 12 teams (This is a free for all league and players can be used as many times as you want)
Best of luck this week everyone and as always, you play to win the game!
by John Gustafson, john@fantasylion.com
Well after last week’s 0-4 disaster, I can’t do much worse than this week. I mentioned that last week that this is just a hobby and I don’t bet on the games unless I’m in Vegas. However, I failed to mention that if I were to bet, I would only be putting money on my lock of the week. The other picks are made just for fun. With that said, let’s take a look at the action for the divisional playoff games.
Playoff record: 0-4, lock of the week picks 0-1
Saturday afternoon game: Arizona +7 @ New Orleans -7
This game is tricky for a few reasons. One, the public (62%) is on the Cards and I hate being on the same side as the public. Second, the line opened up at -7 and with such a high percentage being on the Cards, the line should be moving but it’s not which tells me to take the Saints. Third, I have the Cards going to the Super Bowl, so obviously I have them winning this game outright thus making the 7 points a gift. Finally, despite all that, the public does have to win sometime. Otherwise they would never bet. Man I’d love to be all over the Cardinals this week, but this one smells like a trap to me. I’ll forego deeming this my lock of the week, but like a sucker I’ll take the Cards and the points.
My pick: Cards +7
Saturday night game: Baltimore +7 @ Indianapolis -7
This game opened up at 6.5 and the line has moved slightly. I don’t really read into line movement until it’s at least a full point. The betting seems to be about even. Right now on SportsInsights.com, they have bets distributed at a 50/50 split and I can certainly see why. On one hand, the Ravens are the darling pick of the divisional games and some have the Ravens pulling off the upset. I don’t see the Ravens winning, but they could keep it close like they did earlier this year in week 11 when they lost at home 17-15. With the assumption that they keep it close, the 7 points is a great headstart. If the Ravens can impose their will, the 7 points is a great bet. On the other hand, the Colts don’t need a lot of time to get their offense going. If the Ravens make some mistakes early, then this game could get out of hand and open the door for an easy Colts cover. The Colts have a lot to prove and may come out fired up. If they’re flat, then the crowd could turn on them as a lot of their fans are not happy about the Colts giving up on a chance at a perfect record. I’m staying away from this one as well. If I had to pick, I’d take the Ravens and the points.
My Pick: Ravens +7
Sunday morning game: Cowboys +2.5 @ Minnesota -2.5
This is a game that some would shy away from, but I really like the Vikings in this one. The Vikings -2.5 are my lock of the week. The Cowboys have had success down the stretch, but they only beat one quality opponent. I’m not a believer in their success or chances of winning this game. To me, this number should be around 7 but the Cowboys are one of the most bet on teams in all of sports so oddsmakers probably felt that they could set this number lower and still get action from the Cowboys side. With a little more than half (56%) of the money on the Cowboys, it looks like their strategy worked. Another reason I like this number is because it’s under the -3. I expect this game to be close, but I have the Vikings winning so they’ll only need to win by a FG to cover. Finally, I would not be surprised if the Vikings come out fired up and light up the Cowboys. My hunch is that the Vikings could cover a -7 but oddsmakers set it a little lower to hedge their bet so that in case the game is close, they still have a great chance of winning. There’s a lot I like about the Vikings this week, so they are officially my lock of the week!
My pick: Vikings -2.5 - Lock of the week
Sunday afternoon game: Jets +7 @ Chargers +7
This is another game I’m having a hard time reading. I’m emotionally invested into this game. The Chargers are my 2nd favorite team and I have them going to the Super Bowl. I think that might be clouding my judgment. I could see the Chargers blowing the Jets out and easily covering the number but the way the Jets have been playing, I’m hesitant to go all out and say that. The Jets should be able to keep this close as long as they can sustain long drives and convert that to scoring opportunities. This line started at 9.5 but has since moved to 7 which means a lot of money came in on the Jets. However, there are more bets on the Chargers with 53% of the bets being on the Chargers. This means that the early money loved getting the Jets and almost 10 points. I usually like seeing a number at around 60% before pimping it as a full on public slaughtering but this one certainly has a lot of indications that it could be. I’m going with the Jets and the points but as a Chargers fan, hoping they blow the Jets out.
My pick: Jets +7
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by John Gustafson, john@fantasylion.com
Yesterday I posted my QB & RB updates, today I’ll go over my updated WR & TE rankings for the NFL playoffs.
Note- These rankings are for PPR leagues. The rankings are based on the number of games I think each guy will play. The number of projected games are in ( ).
Wide Receivers
Maybes for next week if their teams advance
Tight Ends
Other what if long shots worth considering
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This last week I made a friendly wager with my buddy @DeuceFever who’s a huge Jets fan. I was extremely confident that the Bengals would have no problem handling the Jets and Deuce would have to change her team name in the FantasyLion.com One & Done contest to “The Bengals are My DADDY!”. Unfortunately, that didn’t happen so I had to put my money where my mouth is and uphold my end of the bet which is to wear Jets gear for the next week or as long as the Jets are still alive (whichever is longest). Deuce and I have a rematch this week so hopefully I’ll be returning the favor and sending her some Chargers gear come Monday so that she can drown her offseason sorrows in some Chargers powder blue. It’s all in good fun and as Deuce put it, “told you that you look good in green. JETS! :)“But I wasn’t the only one to lose a footbal bet this week. Actor Kiefer Sutherland did as well and compared to what he had to do, I got off easy!
Wish me luck this week because I do NOT want to lose 2 weeks in a row!