FantasyLion.com: All Day

by Johnny Lion† of Pyromaniac.com

One of my friends asked me what was wrong with the Niners. Below is my assessment of this trainwreck and how to fix it.

The Niners are dogshit. Singletary has lost the team. This has been a series of bad decisions that is resulting in their early season implosion. This all started with the signing of David Carr. By signing Carr, the Niners decided that they weren’t going to pursue McNabb and go with Smith.

You and I both know that he sucks. If a guy doesn’t get it done in 5 years, he’ll never be more than a back up. When your QB is ineffective and you don’t want to put the blame on him and ruin his fragile confidence, then you start pointing the fingers elsewhere. Jimmy Raye was the first scapegoat. The Niners should have never let Martz go. With Martz running the offense and Singletary and Manusky running the D, this team would have been dominant. But that didn’t happen either because Coach Mike felt threatened or Martz wanted the head coaching job and left.

So now we’re left with the Alex Smith experiment still shitting on our offense. The new OC is helpful, but he’s under-qualified and Smith is still the root of the problem.

The worst part of this is Coach Mike is going to get run out of town and Frank Gore’s career is going to go to waste having played on bad teams.

When I watch them play, the only 2 guys that can be counted on are Gore and Willis.

My best advice for them would be to bench Smith, put Carr in there so he can suck, then the Niners will know what we as fans have known, that it’s time for a new QB.

The good news is McNabb and Vick will be free agents this year. Every other potential free agent QB sucks so it’s time to make a play for one of them if they don’t re-sign with their teams or draft a QB.

The best case scenario would be if Coach Mike can take this team that’s playing like a 5-11 team and get them to 8-8 then draft a new QB. Hopefully they don’t can him, because that would be a mistake unless they can him for a guy like Bill Cowher.

We’ll see. They’ve made some good moves, but not enough to get us back to where we belong.

Follow Johnny on Twitter or Email This Pharmacist

by Johnny Lion† of Pyromaniac.com

In 15 years of fantasy football, I’ve never seen a year so brutal when it comes to injuries. Maybe in 1999 when top 2 picks Terrell Davis and Jamal Anderson both went down, but this year is ridiculous. If you’re a Matt Stafford, Tony Romo, Vince Young, Michael Vick, Darren McFadden, Michael Turner, Knowshon Moreno, Ryan Mathews, Pierre Thomas, Malcom Floyd, Clinton Portis…(you get the point) owner, then you know what I mean.

Now you can do one of two things. One, you can pack it in and bitch about what bad luck you have and whine to your co-workers about how you should be winning your fantasy league. I’d advise against this, because if your co-workers don’t care about your kids, what the hell do you think they think about your fantasy team?

That leads me to your next option; grind. You should never stop working the waiver wire. You should look at your fantasy team like a puzzle. Keep searching for the right pieces until it’s complete. Then when it’s complete find some backup pieces. Even when you’re team is looking good, it could always look better. If you have a studly starting lineup, continue to make moves to build a strong bench. Having a strong bench helps you if you’ve suffered a loss to injury. A strong bench also allows you to package up some of your depth to trade for studs.

So unless you’re 0-6, you still stand a chance. Fight the temptation to bitch to anyone who’ll listen, dig in, and GRIND! We’re not even halfway done folks, the fun is just beginning!

Follow Johnny on Twitter or Email This Pharmacist

Welcome to the Vegas section of Pyromaniac.com where we take a look at each game from a betting perspective. I’m going to give a brief description of each game and which teams I think are worth taking a chance on. You can choose to go heavy on one of the teams or spread it out. It’s up to you. There’s an argument to be said for either way. The odds are from Matchbook.com. I’ll rank each team on a 1-5 scale with a 1 being a bet you should pass on and a 5 being a must play.

In that game last January, the Saints were a 4 point favorite and did not cover in their 31-28 overtime victory. Keep in mind that was also a game where the Saints won the turnover battle 5-1.

What’s interesting is this game opened up with the same line of -4 and has since moved to -4.5 with some books having the line at -5.5. The line movement is probably due to all the public money that’s come in on the Saints.

Well it would make logical sense that the Saints would roll again in this one being the defending champs and the Vikings having all their issues, right?

Not in my opinion. 

There’s a reason the public gets slayed most weeks and in such a high profile game, and with 65% of the money on the Saints, it looks like the public also known as “the squares” could be in for another disappointment. 

When you bet, you have to have a contrarian attitude before leaving your hard-earned cash in the hands of overpaid athletes. Before you lay almost a TD on the defending champs, play Devil’s advocate with yourself and ask why this bet is appearing to be so obvious.

Once you do, you’ll discover that there’s some deeper angles that could favor the Vikings.

1. The revenge factor: one of the more underrated factors in football, but the Vikings will come into this one with a lot to prove especially considering they should have won the NFC Championship.

2. The turnover battle: Last time they got slaughtered in the turnover battle, 5-1. That won’t happen this time. If the Vikings turned the ball over 2 less times last time, they could have and should have blown the Saints out. I wouldn’t be surprised if the Vikings win easily in this win by keeping the turnover battle close and controlling the clock with a heavy dose of Adrian Peterson.

3. The points: I only take the underdogs if I think they can win outright. And I do in this one, so getting the 4.5 is a gift. If the Vikings can keep it close, then you’ll be a winner. 

It’s going to take a lot of nerve to go against the grain by taking the Vikings in this one even though the obvious play is the Saints. Fight the urge to play the obvious and take the Vikes and the points and start your season off in the positive.

Vikings +4.5 Bet Strength: 4 out of 5

Each week you’ll need to set your lineup, but you may not be sure what role each player will have for you. I mean we all know Ray Rice is a stud, but can he still be counted on for RB1 production vs the Jets tough run D this week? In the NFL, each team sets up their depth chart based on who’s healthy and who’s playing well. Likewise in fantasy, you should be doing the same thing. In an effort to help bring your team some identity, we’d like to introduce you to “Slow Your Role”, the depth chart of fantasy football.

NOTE- These rankings are comprehensive and in no particular order. The point expectations are based on 12 team, point per reception leagues, 4 points for passing TDs, 6 points for all other TDs. If you’re in something other than a 12 team PPR league check out the Forbes List on ffPharmacy.com and the weekly rankings on Pyromaniac.com.

Minnesota Vikings at New Orleans Saints

QB1- must starts, expect at least 20 points

• Drew Brees, NO - This game could turn into a shootout quickly and with the Vikings usually strong up front to start every year, the advantage for the Saints will be in the passing game.
• Brett Favre, Min - I’m not a fan of the old man, but I’ll be rooting for him in this one. I’d look for the Vikes to rely on AP early and often, but I like Favre to throw for a couple of TDs and at least 200 yards.

QB2- only play if your starter is out, expect at least 15 points

• n/a

RB1- must starts, expect at least 15 points

• Adrian Peterson, Min - I love AP in this one. The Vikings will need the heat off of Favre and the best way to do that is to feed their workhorse. I wouldn’t be surprised if AP finished as the #1 back this week.
• Pierre Thomas, NO - PT might have a hard time running the ball, but he’s dynamite in the passing game. PT should also be a good bet to score. 

RB2- your #2 RB, expect at least 12 points

• Reggie Bush, NO - I’m never wild about giving Bush an endorsement, but if this game turns into the shootout I think it will, Bush should be active in the passing game. Recently, Reggie has gone Cris Carter… “all he does is score TDs”. Reggie will only get about 10 touches, but he won’t need a lot to get his.

RB3- I’d only start one of these guys if I had no other choice, expect around 10 points but don’t be disappointed if they come up small

• Chris Ivory/DeShawn Wynn, NO - If you’re relying on either of these guys week 1, you’re already in trouble. Ivory should be the guy, but he’s banged up so it could be Wynn. With the Saints intent on rolling with a 3-headed monster at RB, expect one of these guys to get some work.

WR1- must starts, expect at least 15 points

• Percy Harvin, Min - With Rice out, Harvin should be the main benefactor. Bottomline, Percy should be in for a lot of work and grind his way to a nice night.

WR2- your #2 WR, expect at least 12 points

• Marques Colston, NO - It’s a crapshoot determining Saints WR production every week, but normally you have to assume that it’s going to be Colston. I’d love to rank him as a WR1, but he’s so damn inconsistent. I feel very comfortable with him as a high WR2 though in this one.

WR3- I’d only start one of these guys if I had no other choice, expect around 10 points. Some of these guys will have pretty good games, others will have you wishing they were never on your team to begin with.

• Bernard Berrian, MIN - Berrian had a very nice game the last time he played the Saints, but without Rice we don’t know how the targets are going to be distributed. Until them, start him as a nice WR3.
• Lance Moore, Devery Henderson, Robert Meachem, NO - Now we play production-go-round with the rest of the Saints WRs. I’m going to group them all together because it’s going to come down to which sees the most targets. One of these guys will have a start-worthy game, but unless you have Sean Payton on the text, your guess is as good as mine.
• Greg Camarillo, Min - Camarillo is a really intriguing option this week. Camarillo could be in for some nice underneath work in this one making him a decent reach if you need him. But then again, at this point in the season, your team should be healthy and you shouldn’t be reaching. If you have to reach, then you should have bought our draft kit… Just sayin’.

WR4- If I’m really desperate, I’d go with one of these guys and hope for the best. They’re super reaches for sure. Expectation is around 8 points but 0 is also a very real possibility.

• Greg Lewis, Min - If you’re thinking about starting Greg Lewis this week or ever for that matter. Quit fantasy football. Seriously, quit. Invest your time and energy into something more worthwhile like collecting dandelions. 

TE1- must starts, expect at least 12 points

• Vishante Shiancoe, Min - Stanky Shiancy doesn’t catch a lot of balls, but he is Brett’s favorite target in the red zone. Without the 6’4 Rice to target, Shiancoe should be the main benefactor inside the 10. I would expect more than 5 catches, but Shiancoe is always a good bet for about 3 catches, 50 yards, and a few looks in the red zone giving him about a 30% chance to score.

TE2- only start if your backup is out, hope for 10 points (in no part. order)

• Jeremy Shockey, NO - I’d even say 10 points is a reach for. If you have Shockey, drop him and pick up a younger guy like Jermaine Gresham or Rob Gronkowski who’s sure to have more fantasy value than Shockey this year.

D1- Solid looking Ds, expect around 10 points (in no part. order)

• n/a

D2- These Ds have matchup or talent issues, but could surprise, hope for at least 8 points (in no part. order)

• New Orleans Saints - If you have a better option, I’d consider it. I expect both offenses to score at least 20 points which would mean neither D would get points for points allowed. The Saints D benefited from being very opportunistic last year, the type of turnover ratio that they achieved last year will be very hard to replicate this year.
• Minnesota Vikings - Again, if you have a better option, I’d go with that. The Cardinals D vs the Rams and Sam Bradford making his first start is a good option. I have a feeling we see a defensive TD in this game and that could go to Min. Plus with Percy returning kickoffs, he’s always a threat to take one to the house. Additionally, their pass rush should be able to get after Brees. The Vikes are a decent start but not a great start.

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What’s going on everyone?

Some of you may or may not know this, but I’ve left the confines of my own blog FantasyLion.com and joined the awesome staff over at Pyromaniac.com, so you can catch all of my future articles and videos there.

I also wanted to let you know that I’m looking for writers/contributers for a new site that we’re launching called the Fantasy Football Pharmacy (www.ffpharmacy.com). If you are interested on contributing to the site or looking for an additional way to promote your website/blog, let me know. If you’ve always wanted to write about football, but never had an outlet, this is for you!

We are launching on Wednesday and are pumped about it!

Anonymous asked: Where do I go to sign up for one of your leagues?

If you’re interested in playing in a league with me, email me at john@fantasylion.com and I’ll send you all the info!

Points Per Reception: The Cadillac of Fantasy Football

by John Gustafson

In 1996, when I was in the sixth grade, I was bit by the fantasy bug. It all started on a Sunday morning after a Saturday night sleepover. That morning after some pancakes my friend Clint and I headed into the living room to catch some NFL action on the tube. This was a pretty normal activity as Clint was a big Dolphins fan, and me, of course a Niners fan. About 30 minutes later, Clint’s dad came into the room going apeshit because Dan Marino had already thrown 2 TD passes and his team had 12 points. Wait a second? Why was Clint’s dad so excited? Unlike Clint, he wasn’t a Dolphins fan, he was a 49ers fan. And 12 points? We all know TDs are worth 14 points. What the hell was going on here? Well once Clint and his dad calmed down, they introduced me to the greatest hobby known to all man-kind; fantasy football.

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On Episode 3 of the Fantasy Football Hustle Podcast I cover the toughest position to draft from this year, where to take your QB, how to maximize the first 4 rounds of your draft, who I’m taking every single time in the 5th round, and tell you what to do when faced with the decision of Harvin, Nicks, or Maclin.

by John Gustafson and Dave Perrin

A few days ago I engaged in a discussion about Chester Taylor being over-hyped. This was alarming to me because I love Chester Taylor as a 4th RB and have been targeting him around the 8th round.

I have also been avoiding Forte. I loved him last year, but after 2009’s disappointing performance, I wasn’t going to go out of my way to pick him. With the help of special contributor Dave Perrin, I’d like to re-create that discussion. Dave’s arguments helped open my eyes to a possible fantasy gem that I may have been overlooking.

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Anonymous asked: who do u think will have a better fantasy football year Ryan Grant, Cedric Benson or Beanie Wells?

I’m not wild about any of them and won’t pick them this year because none of them catch the ball and I only play in points per reception leagues.

However, out of those 3, I’d rather have Beanie Wells. He seems to have the most upside.

The Cards upgraded their line and lost Warner so they’ll rely on their passing game more and Beanie has an easy schedule.

Beanie and Benson have an injury history which is two other reasons I’m not falling in love with either.

Benson should have a lot of running lanes as the Bengals look committed to being more effective in the passing game. However, I won’t be taking him because of the above mentioned reasons.

Ryan Grant was a top 10 back last year but that was only because there was a lot of transition at the RB position last year.

You saw guys getting hurt and new stars emerge, but Grant achieved his normal steady production and was a top 10er by default.

I don’t think that’s the case this year and I think a 2nd or 3rd round pick is too much to pay for him. He isn’t special and I like guys with a higher ceiling than Grant’s for an early pick like that.

Again, I’m partial because I only play in PPR leagues. In the 2nd and 3rd rounds, the RBs I’m targeting are Jamaal Charles, Ryan Mathews, Matt Forte, Knowshon Moreno, LeSean McCoy and Jonathan Stewart.

Great question!

My Pick: This late in the draft, I like to employ what I like to call the “rent-a-RB” approach. I’ll typically target backup RBs that play behind RBs that have missed time the last 2-3 years and try and steal a few starts on a few to week basis. My RBs are not the strongest part of my team, but if I can steal a few starts here and there at the RB position, then my team as a whole gets stronger. Additionally, should one of these volatile starters miss extended time, then the “handcuff” backs will be fantasy gold. In part time work last year, Snelling averaged over 4 yards a carry, had over 750 total yards, and 5 TDs. He also chipped in with 30 catches which is something that Falcons starter does not do, catch the ball! The Falcons have an easier schedule, so I’d expect Turner to have a bounce back year, but if he misses any time, I’ll be able to plug Snelling in as a RB2 or flex player. I’ll take that kind of potential this late in the draft.

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I want to thank the folks at BleacherReport.com once again for featuring one of my articles on a team homepage. This time it was my Malcolm Floyd sleeper article. I really appreciate their help in getting the word out about my site and help in saving the world from bad fantasy football advice!

In the newest edition of the Fantasy Football Hustle Podcast, I go over a new dynasty league I’m starting. I also cover which RBs I would take in the first round and which ones I’d avoid like the plague. Who will this year’s Chris Johnson be? Check out and find out who I think may be this year’s 1st round diamond in the rough. Be sure to check out Episode 3 this Thursday night at 11pm on Blog Talk Radio. www.blogtalkradio.com/FantasyLion